The Assumption Ledger

Use this to sort what you actually know from what you’re hoping is true, before you commit anyone to a direction.

1. The claim

Write down the statement driving the decision, one sentence, no hedging.

2. The evidence

List what you have actually seen or measured. If it’s a hunch dressed up as fact, call it a hunch.

3. The cost of being wrong

Say plainly what it costs if this turns out false: time, money, or the kind of reputational damage that doesn’t show up on a spreadsheet.

4. The smallest test

Name the smallest thing you could do that would change your confidence inside two weeks.